Doing Something That’s Never Been Done Before

To increase the likelihood of being first, focus on obscurity, time investment, difficulty, and progressive dependencies.

Key Points

People have limited time and energy, so projects that take long or are complex are less likely to be completed by others.
Difficulty and step count reduce the likelihood of replication: the more steps required, the fewer people can complete them end-to-end.
[AI Synthesis] Obscurity increases the chance of being first: rare or niche ideas are less likely to be discovered by others.
[AI Synthesis] Progressive dependency creates exponential rarity: each step requires completion of the prior one, reducing the probability of sequential discovery.
To maximize first-mover odds, prioritize obscurity, time consumption, difficulty, and unknowns that only resolve upon progress.